When1: 1736
When2: 1761
Who: Thomas Bayes [Bayes, Thomas]
What: mathematician
Where: London, England
works\ Introduction to the Doctrine of Fluxions, and a Defence of the Mathematicians Against the Objections of the Author of The Analyst [1736]
Detail: He lived 1702 to 1761. Expected outcome is worth or gain multiplied by probability. Risk is expected-outcome divided by outcome value {Bayesian theory} [1761].
Epistemology
Census, experimental, or statistical data can determine expected outcomes and find hypothesis probability {Bayesian confirmation theory}. Before evaluating new data, people already have beliefs about hypothesis risk and expected outcome. They know what they expect data to be if hypothesis is correct and what data happen no matter whether hypothesis is true or false.
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Date Modified: 2022.0224