He lived 1702 to 1761. Expected outcome is worth or gain multiplied by probability. Risk is expected-outcome divided by outcome value {Bayesian theory} [1761].
Epistemology
Census, experimental, or statistical data can determine expected outcomes and find hypothesis probability {Bayesian confirmation theory}. Before evaluating new data, people already have beliefs about hypothesis risk and expected outcome. They know what they expect data to be if hypothesis is correct and what data happen no matter whether hypothesis is true or false.
He lived 1781 to 1840 and invented Poisson distribution.
He lived 1856 to 1922, invented probability theory using Chebyshev continued fraction [1900], and invented Markov process [1913].
He lived 1894 to 1981 and invented Neyman-Pearson hypothesis-testing theory [1933].
He lived 1857 to 1936 and invented Neyman-Pearson hypothesis-testing theory [1933].
Chernoff lived 1923 to ?. Mises lived 1921 to ?.
He lived 1906 to 1985. Probability is graded belief or judgments. If judgments are coherent and consistent, judgments converge to consensus with more data, and probability is relative frequencies observed in nature.
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Date Modified: 2022.0225